The predetermined future: tackling South Korea’s total fertility rate crisis
Article information
Key message
· South Korea faces a severe demographic crisis with the lowest global fertility rate. Despite significant investments, the total fertility rate continues to decline.
· It is necessary to fully mobilize national capabilities and execute comprehensive strategies that focus on both intangible and tangible values.
· Immediate and decisive action is essential to addressing these challenges effectively.
South Korea is facing a severe demographic crisis. In late 2023, its total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 0.65, the lowest globally, even below that of war-torn Ukraine. Population pyramid projections depict a grim future, showing a distorted "cobra head" shape with an estimated total population of 48,730,422 and median age of 56.0 years by 2044. Although Korea's total population in 2023 (51,712,619) was more than double that in 1960 (25,012,374), the median age in 2023 (44.5 years) was significantly higher than that in 1960 (19.0 years), illustrating a consistent trend toward an aging population (Fig. 1) [1].
Population structure of and median age in South Korea over time. (A) The projected population pyramid of South Korea in the year 2044 showing the population's distribution by age and sex. The total population is projected to be 48,730,422, and the median age is estimated at 56.0 years. The graph differentiates between male (left) and female (right) populations with different colors representing medium and low estimations for both sexes. (B) Trend of median age in South Korea from 1960 to 2044. The median age has been increasing steadily over the years, starting at 18.5 years in 1970, and it is projected to reach 54.6 years by 2040. Data up to 2023 are actual values, whereas projections beyond 2023 are based on estimated trends. Adapted from Korea National Statistical Office. Available from: https://kosis.kr/visual/populationKorea/PopulationPyramidDetail.do?year=2023 [1].
Despite significant investments in policies and budgets over many years, the TFR has continued to decline since 2015, necessitating a serious re-evaluation. Although tens of trillions of won are spent annually, merely investing money does not increase the TFR, raising questions about whether these policies are based on a proper causal analysis or a rebound in the birth rate alone can solve such problems [2].
The authors of the paper “Demographic transition in South Korea: implications of falling birth rates” analyzed the declining birth rates, aging populations, and national policies in South Korea and major Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries3); moreover, they examined East Asian countries with similar cultures and proposed possible solutions [4]. Their analysis revealed that declining birth rates and aging populations are not unique to South Korea but are prevalent to varying degrees across the United States, Europe, and other developed nations. However, South Korea's challenges are more acute [5].
Increasing ages at marriage and a quickly declining TFR have led to a rapidly aging population and various socioeconomic problems. Socioeconomic factors discourage marriage and contribute to the low TFR. High financial burdens, housing costs, work-life imbalance, lacking affordable childcare, limited support for working parents, and gender-based conflicts make marriage less appealing to young people, causing a decline in marriage rates. Addressing these barriers is essential to increasing the TFR.
Drawing on this analysis, this study reviewed birth promotion policies in East Asian countries including Singapore, Japan, and China. Notably, despite rigorous efforts, a low TFR persists in each, underscoring the issue's complexity. In particular, South Korea's welfare expansion approach to addressing the low TFR has been costly and lacked meaningful results. While some countries have seen temporary increases in TFR, such as Hungary with pronatalist policies and Sweden with a speed premium, solving this issue ultimately requires a comprehensive approach that addresses broader societal structures [6]. Simply investing money without addressing the root causes is ineffective; rather, policies must be based on thorough cause analyses and targeted interventions.
To solve the low TFR problem, comprehensive strategies tailored to each country's reality are required. Increasing the TFR is crucial, and new strategies must focus on intangible values that support family life and well-being, including creating family-friendly work environments, fostering a supportive community culture, promoting the emotional and social benefits of parenthood, and rethinking and revising social norms regarding family life. This problem cannot be solved with short-term policy changes; rather, long-term sustainable solutions are required [7].
It is crucial to consider policies that minimize the adverse effects of a low TFR by addressing the challenges posed by an aging population and shrinking workforce. Strategies such as enhancing the social safety net, improving healthcare for the elderly, and encouraging technological innovation to compensate for labor shortages are vital to mitigating negative impacts of increasing the TFR.
The low TFR has set South Korea on a path to a hyper-aging society, with a shrinking younger generation supporting a larger elderly population. Even if the TFR immediately rebounds, the “crisis period” must be navigated. Strategies to overcome this crisis are imperative. Policies to date related to a low TFR have been sporadic and localized, and they must now be expanded to a full-scale national effort to mobilize all capabilities.
Achieving this goal requires various social-system changes including workplace policies and cultures, childcare services, gender equality initiatives, healthcare and social-service supports, and comprehensive legal frameworks. Such changes can facilitate an environment that supports family life and encourages higher birth rates.
In addition to the comprehensive strategies discussed therein, several other considerations are necessary. We must consider the impact of artificial intelligence development and the Fourth Industrial Revolution on employment as well as the potential issue of Korean reunification [8]. Policy plan ning that considers these societal impacts is required along with legal discussions for long-term measures such as immigration policies, reunification, pensions, regional extinction, and voting rights. We must broaden our perspective about the low TFR by approaching the issue structurally rather than merely predicting numbers based on marriage, birth, and an increase in the elderly population by using extensive macro-research and comprehensive strategizing.
In conclusion, considering current demographic trends, South Korea is inadequately prepared for the impending population cliff caused by a low TFR and hyper-aging. Thus, it is vital to focus national efforts on overcoming these challenges through diverse research and full mobilization of national capabilities to avoid the worst consequences. Decisive action can significantly reduce the impact of a low TLR. We must act urgently to mitigate this crisis.
Notes
Conflicts of interest
No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.
Funding
This study received no specific grant from any funding agency in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.